Century Initiative welcomes the federal government's focus on economic growth, productivity and investment in Budget 2026, as well as efforts to improve the predictability and economic responsiveness of Canada's immigration system. Together, these announcements offer an important opportunity to examine how Canada's economic ambitions align with its long-term demographic and workforce needs.
Budget 2026 includes meaningful measures aimed at strengthening Canada's economic foundations. Initiatives such as the Productivity Mega Deduction, the Canada Growth Incentive and expanded research and development incentives have the potential to encourage business investment, support entrepreneurship and innovation, and improve Canada's competitiveness and productivity. Commitments to housing and infrastructure are also important to strengthening the capacity of communities to support economic growth and population change.
Realizing these ambitions, however, will depend on Canada's ability to develop, attract and retain the people and skills required to deliver them. The 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan maintains permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually, below Century Initiative's long-standing benchmark of 1.15 to 1.25 per cent of Canada's population, as reflected in our National Scorecard. While addressing immediate pressures on housing, infrastructure and public services is essential, immigration planning must also account for Canada's ageing population, future workforce requirements and long-term economic potential.
Population change and Canada's fiscal future
One of the most significant elements of Budget 2026 is its examination of Canada's long-term economic and fiscal outlook.
The Department of Finance projects average annual real GDP growth of just 1.5 per cent between 2031 and 2060. Its analysis also demonstrates how changes in immigration, workforce participation and productivity could materially affect Canada's fiscal position over the coming decades.
These findings reinforce the importance of considering immigration decisions within a broader economic and demographic framework.
"Canada faces difficult choices about how to fund the public services, infrastructure and investments Canadians value," said Lisa Lalande, CEO of Century Initiative. "Stronger economic growth can expand our capacity to make those investments. Population change is an important part of that equation, particularly as our population ages and workforce needs evolve."
Canada's ability to support its long-term ambitions will depend on attracting and retaining talent, increasing labour force participation, improving productivity and ensuring that communities have the infrastructure and services needed to thrive.
Moving beyond short-term constraints
Century Initiative recognizes the pressures that rapid population change can place on housing, infrastructure and public services. Addressing these pressures is essential to maintaining public confidence and ensuring that immigration contributes to economic and social well-being.
However, Canada's long-term immigration policy must also account for the consequences of sustained lower admissions, including their implications for workforce availability, demographic ageing and the economic capacity to fund future public investments.
The challenge is not simply to adjust immigration levels to today's capacity constraints, but to strengthen that capacity while planning for Canada's future needs.
As governments implement the new budget and immigration levels plan, Century Initiative encourages greater attention to three priorities:
"Canada needs a long-term population strategy that connects the people and skills our economy will require with the investments needed to support them," added Lalande. "Immigration levels should be informed by both the capacity we have today and the country we are preparing for tomorrow. That means confronting immediate pressures without losing sight of our longer-term needs."
Century Initiative will continue to advance independent research and public dialogue on how population change can contribute to Canada's long-term prosperity, economic resilience and quality of life.
About Century Initiative
Century Initiative is a national, non-partisan charity dedicated to helping Canada understand population change and plan for long-term prosperity. Through research, public engagement and informed dialogue, Century Initiative works to strengthen understanding of the demographic, economic and social forces shaping Canada's future.
