Population of Canada
(Real-Time Model)
Fetching Data...
Population Change Since Midnight
Fetching Data...
We've set an aspirational, bold target of 100 Million Canadians by 2100. More than just a number, this target is intended to challenge Canada, and Canadians to believe in and spark conversation about what a bigger, better, bolder future for our country could look like.
Why? Because the world is changing at a rapid pace, and Canada is falling behind. Our population is aging and we’re having fewer children. If we stay the course, this would result in fewer taxpayers, limiting the ability to fund essential public services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Labour shortages in key industries such as healthcare, agriculture, and technology would worsen, slowing economic growth, driving up prices and reducing our competitiveness.
Canada has a role to play on the global stage in both advancing climate and human rights commitments and upholding national security. But when it comes to global activities, being an influential player depends on a strong economy and international reputation.
A growth mindset is a necessity for Canada's long-term prosperity, resilience and national security.
Population of Canada
(Real-Time Model)
Population Change Since Midnight
A population of 100 million by 2100 is not as ambitious as it sounds. There are two main ways we can get there: by supporting people who want to have more children—which would increase our fertility rate—and by increasing our immigration levels.
In 2020, Canada’s fertility rate was at a record low of 1.40, well below the 2.1 rate required to keep the population steady. We could raise our fertility rate to the OECD average of 1.6, but we’ll need substantial improvements to how we approach issues like child care and parental leave, which make it easier for families to have the number of children they choose.
Immigration will also be key, but we’re not talking about massive leaps in Canada’s annual targets. We're proposing regular increases over time, and we’ve done it before. In 1913, immigration peaked with the arrival of 400,000 newcomers to Canada, which was more than 5% of the population at the time. Our current rate is closer to 1%. We can, and must, do more.
In winter 2022, Century Initiative commissioned the Conference Board of Canada to update population projection scenarios on immigration levels needed to grow to a population of 100 million by 2100. Their modelling assumes Canada will achieve the ambitious immigration level targets set by the Government of Canada in February 2022, and also recognizes the lower immigration intake in 2020 as a result of COVID-19.
The two scenarios below were developed based on potential fertility rates in future years: a fertility rate that remains around 1.5, and a fertility rate that increases to 1.6 over the 2020s. In both scenarios, consistent increases in immigration are required to achieve 100 million, though those numbers will shift depending on the degree to which fertility rates change. The assumptions underpinning these long-term projections will be updated over time to account for changes in the environment.