Addressing the recent election coverage regarding Century Initiative
Read announcementCanada needs to fix what’s not working in the immigration system—not reverse the gains the country has made. That starts with a long-term population plan aligned with Canada’s economic, workforce, housing, and regional priorities.
Century Initiative’s latest report, Pulling Back: The Social and Economic Implications of Reducing Canada’s Immigration Levels in Unstable Times, examines the far-reaching consequences of the federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan—including a 20% reduction in permanent resident targets and significant new caps on temporary residents. These changes come at a time of rising economic uncertainty, demographic strain, and shifting global power dynamics.
The report explore show this pullback threatens Canada’s economic growth, workforce resilience, national security, rural sustainability, and global competitiveness. It also highlights impacts on post-secondary institutions, child care, philanthropy, and refugee protection.
A significant GDP Hit Means Added Pressure on the Economy
Immigration cuts are projected to shrink Canada’s nominal GDP by $37 billion over three years. This drag on growth will be compounded by declining consumer spending and rising U.S. tariff threats—putting added pressure on our economy. These economic headwinds will strain government revenues, limiting Canada’s ability to invest in essential priorities like social programs, cybersecurity, housing, and national defence at a time when such investments are most urgently needed.
Workforce Shortages = Business Bottlenecks
From construction to childcare, agriculture and cybersecurity, fewer immigrants mean deeper talent gaps, higher recruitment costs for employers, and not enough workers to meet future needs. Rural communities will be among those hardest hit by reduced immigration levels, as the Levels Plan cuts spaces in the Provincial Nominee Program in half. This will be particularly challenging as rural communities with tariff-sensitive local industries work to adapt to the evolving Canada/U.S. trade relations environment.
International Student Cuts Jeopardize Jobs and Innovation
Fewer study permits mean lost revenue for universities, weaker talent pipelines, and long-term damage to our innovation economy. Without policy change, institutions will face tough choices: cut more programs or raise domestic tuition.
Global Talent Competition Is Heating Up
As global economic instability changes labour mobility patterns, Canada faces a once-in-a-generation opportunity to implement an international talent attraction strategy targeted at American workers. This talent attraction strategy can help address significant labour shortages in critical industries of Canada’s economy and strengthen Canada’s research and innovation ecosystem for the long-term.
Canada’s North Is a Strategic Frontier—But We’re Undermanned
As foreign powers ramp up Arctic ambitions, Canada’s sparse population and shrinking immigration pipeline leave Northern regions under-resourced and exposed. Sustained population growth, especially Indigenous-led development in rural and Northern Canada, is essential to protect our sovereignty and economic future.
Recognizing the Unintended Consequences of the Pull Back
Immigrants give more, volunteer more, and contribute to stronger communities. Immigration reductions risk weakening Canada’s charitable sector just as demand for supports surges. A nearly 29% cut to refugee admissions also undermines Canada’s humanitarian leadership on the global stage.
Canada’s future prosperity depends on forward-looking policies—not short-term rollbacks. This paper underscores the need for a strategic, evidence-based population plan that treats immigration as a lever for long-term prosperity, resilience, and national security.
So what does a population plan look like? Century Initiative’s Smart Growth Framework offers a path forward.
