3 Scenarios for Canada

a choice that will define our future

Select a Year

2016

2025

2050

2075

2100

Select an Immigration Scenario

0 Immigration

Status Quo

100M Scenario

1.55%
GDP GROWTH
 
Pop
Pop Rank
GDP Rank
GDP Growth
 0 Immigration
19.5M
78
NA
0.21%
 Status Quo
53.7M
69
NA
1.55%
 100M Scenario
100.1M
27
NA
2.57%

0 Immigration Scenario

Without immigration, the Canadian population will shrink rapidly. By 2100, the country will be half its current size. At 17.5 million, Canada would fall to 78th in world population (from 38th). Our economy would stall. GDP would not grow. Historically, two thirds of our economic growth has come from labour force growth. We need people to work and to drive our economy. As you can see, without immigration our country falters – this image is stark.

Status Quo

If our population continues to grow at current rates, Canada will be a nation of 53.7 million people in 2100. Under this scenario, long term economic growth of 1% per year is weak, and Canada drops to 69th in world population ranking. This means Canada’s population will be smaller than many countries, including that of Yemen, Burkina Faso, and Ghana. We want more for Canada.

100M Scenario

Under this scenario Canada is a country of 100 million people by the end of the century. Immigration levels would slowly rise until Canada admits 1.3% of the population each year. Canada clearly benefits from this scenario with a GDP growth of 2.5% per year and, at 100 million, maintains global relevance as one of the world’s 30 largest countries. It is only through this type of steady, incremental growth that Canada enjoys economic success. A bigger Canada benefits us all.


Sources

  1. Adès, Julie, et al. “A Long-Term View of Canada’s Changing Demographics: Are Higher Immigration Levels an Appropriate Response to Canada’s Aging Population?” The Conference Board of Canada. 2016.
  2. “The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision” United Nations. Department of Economics and Social Affairs. 2015.
  3. “GDP Long Term Forecast” OECD. 2017
  4. Century Initiative Analysis